Signs Of Heating In The Semiconductor Industry Show That Price Increases Or Direct Catalysts?

Foreword:

In 2024, after a period of high inventory and low demand in the global semiconductor industry, market demand began to gradually recover.

The bottom of the semiconductor industry has appeared at the bottom of the cycle, the inventory has returned to a reasonable level, and the price repair is gradually expanding from the end of the component to the wafer foundry end, and the trend of price edge repair has continued to increase.

A new round of price increases for semiconductor may be opened soon

Recently, according to Taiwan's "Industry and Commerce Times", in view of the tight production capacity and strong market demand, TSMC decided to adjust the 3nm and 5nm advanced process and advance packaging services.

Specifically, the quotation of TSMC 3nm foundry service is expected to rise by more than 5%, and the annual quotation of advanced packaging services is expected to be between 10%and 20%.

It is worth noting that the price adjustment of this round of price has gradually been transmitted to the downstream of the industrial chain.

According to the supply chain news, Qualcomm Snapdragon 8GEN4 adopts TSMC N3E process. Compared with the previous generation of products, its quotation has increased by 25%, which may further promote the trend of the price adjustment of subsequent product prices.

In addition, according to WCCFTECH reports, not only Gaocong, but also manufacturers such as Nvidia and AMD also plans to increase the price of popular AI hardware.

At the same time, a new round of price adjustment in the semiconductor industry may be started soon.The recent report released by Morgan Stanley pointed out that Hua Hong semiconductor's wafer fab has exceeded 100%, and it is expected that the price of wafers may be 10%in the second half of this year.

Institutions' tracking data also shows that the price adjustment of wafer foundry has affected power semiconductor manufacturers. Since the beginning of this year, power semiconductor manufacturers have emerged.

Among them, manufacturers such as Sanlian Sheng, Blue Color Electronics, Gao Gexin Micro, and Jiejie Microelectronics have adjusted their entire series of products, with an increase of 10%to 20%.

The phenomenon of price increases covers multiple key areas of the semiconductor industry, including storage chips, power semiconductors, simulation devices, wafer foundry services, etc.

In terms of storage chips, such as DRAM and NAND Flash, the prices have risen significantly since the fourth quarter of 2023, and some products have increased by 50%.

In the field of power semiconductors, such as MOSFET, the global power semiconductor leader Yingfei plans to increase the price by about 12%. Domestic manufacturers such as China Resources Micro and Yangjie Technology have also announced the price increase, partly increased by 20%.

The price increases starting from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024.For example, TSMC's price increase is planned to be implemented in early 2024, while Yingfeeling's MOSFET product price increase is expected to be implemented in mid -June 2024.

The price increase letter of domestic power semiconductor manufacturers is also concentrated in the first half of 2024.The price increase of the storage chip began in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the price increase cycle of some products has lasted more than half a year.

Global Semiconductor Market Forecast from 2024-2025

According to the latest forecasts of the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), it is expected that the global semiconductor market will grow strongly in 2024 and 2025.

Rest up the forecast of 2024 Global semiconductor market sales will reach US $ 61.2 billion, an increase of 16%year -on -year.

Recently, WSTS raised the global semiconductor market growth rate forecast in 2024, from 13.1%to 16.0%, and expected to increase by 12.5%in 2025.

The marketing device market is expected to decrease by 7.8%year -on -year in 2024, and the actual shows of a decrease of 13.9%year -on -year.Both the small signal and the power transistor market have double -digit negative growth.It is expected to increase by 7.7%year -on -year in 2025.

Optical semiconductors are expected to decrease by 1.0%year -on -year, and from January to April, a year -on -year decrease of 5.2%.The image sensor market has grown strongly. It is expected to grow in 2024, an increase of 3.5%in 2025.

The sensor/actuator is expected to decrease by 7.4%year -on -year, and the actual display shows a year -on -year decrease of 12.9%.Smart mobile phone demand is strong, but vehicle demand is stagnant.It is predicted that one -digit negative growth in 2024.

The simulation chip market is expected to decrease by 2.7%year -on -year, but it has recovered from the bottom.The impact of the excess of the universal simulation market order continues.

The microcontroller market is expected to increase by 1.6%year -on -year, and the actual shows that a year -on -year increase of 10.6%, the MPU market has performed well.

The logical chip market is expected to increase by 10.7%year -on -year, and the actual shows of 14.2%year -on -year, and telecommunications equipment performance is particularly prominent.

The storage market is expected to increase by 76.8%year -on -year, and the actual shows of an increase of 85.4%year -on -year, but it has not returned to its peak level.

The signs of recovery in the semiconductor industry behind the price increase are obvious

The phenomenon of price increases is not the result of a moment, but the result of multiple factors such as market demand, tight capacity, and rising raw material costs.

With the development and application promotion of AI technology, the demand for high -performance computing chips has surged, and the price increase of semiconductor products has been further promoted.

At the same time, the tension of global production capacity has also caused the price of wafer foundry to rise.

In addition, the uncertainty of the supply chain and the rise in raw material costs are also an important factor to promote price increases.

Especially driven by AI technology, the demand for high -performance computing chips has increased, leading to the first price increase in some power semiconductor products.

For example, the prices of Sanlian Sheng, Blue Color Electronics, and high-grades micro-series products are raised by 10-20%, which reflects the increase in the market's demand for semiconductor products.

From the perspective of historical data, the semiconductor industry has a strong cycle. Generally, it will usher in recovery after the 4-6 quarterly down cycle.

At present, with the gradual decline in inventory levels, and the development of emerging technologies such as 5G, the Internet of Things and autonomous driving, the demand for semiconductor is gradually increasing, which has promoted the rise in prices.

In addition to supply and demand, changes in the cost of upstream raw materials are also an important factor affecting the price of semiconductor products.

During the semiconductor production process, a large amount of high -purity silicon materials, rare metals, and chemical gas are required.

The fluctuations in the price of these raw materials directly affect the cost of semiconductor manufacturing.

In recent years, the increase in demand for rare metals and other resources around the world has led to rising prices of some key raw materials.At the same time, the uncertainty of the global trade environment may also lead to an increase in supply chain costs.

The common role of these factors has enabled semiconductor manufacturers to increase product prices in order to maintain profits.

In addition, increased investment in semiconductor equipment is also one of the reasons for rising costs.

With the development of advanced process technology, the demand for high -end equipment has continued to increase, and these equipment usually has higher costs.Therefore, the increase in equipment investment will also indirectly push the price of semiconductor products.

In summary, the price increase of the semiconductor industry is the result of the common effects of various factors, including changes in supply and demand relationships, rising upstream raw material costs, and increasing equipment investment.

The increase in the installed capacity of the wafer plant has also added motivation to the recovery of the semiconductor industry, indicating that the company is full of confidence in the future market and is actively deploying.

end:

Back in China, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Third Phase III Co., Ltd. has officially established it in May this year. Its registered capital is as high as 344 billion yuan, which has attracted 19 investment shareholders, and the Ministry of Finance and other institutions are also among them.

Compared with the first two issues, the registered capital of the third phase of the Fund has increased significantly, and its scale even surpasses the sum of the registered capital of the previous two.

Recently, [Article 8 of Science and Technology Board] was released. These reform measures aims to further highlight the core position of the science and technology board in the field of [Hard Technology], and optimize the functions of service technology innovation and new productive development.

Given that many related companies on the semiconductor industry chain have been listed on the science and technology board, there are reasons to predict that in the next six months, the semiconductor sector will become a key area for policy support.