The Price Of TSMC's Advanced Process Has Risen And Performance In The AI ​​Field

The price of TSMC's advanced process has continued to rise.It is reported that TSMC has adjusted the quotation of foundry provided by customers in 2025 to reduce the loss of gross profit margin caused by overseas factories' high operating costs and 2NM deployment costs.Customers can obtain the quotation of the 2NM process manufacturing, which is scheduled to start in the fourth quarter of 2025.

TSMC's advanced manufacturing and packaging technology continued to improve, but the deployment cost of the 2NM process has begun to affect the gross profit margin of foundries.In view of the increase in inflation pressure and the cost of building overseas wafer factories, TSMC notify customers that prices may rise by 10%in 2025.This adjustment is mainly made for advanced 5nm, 4nm, and 3nm craftsmanship for the wafer agency.The increase depends on factors such as customer relationships, product types, orders, and manufacturing capabilities. It will exceed 4%of the earliest estimated first, up to 10%.

In contrast, market news in July said that the current TSMC 6nm/7nm capacity utilization rate is only 60%, and the price will be reduced by 10%from January 1, 2025.

It is worth noting that the price of 2nm is higher than the previous expected $ 25,000, which may exceed $ 30,000.In contrast, the current price of 3nm wafers is about 18,500 to 20,000 US dollars, and the price of 4/5nm wafers is between US $ 15 and 16,000.

Industry insiders said TSMC has successively confirmed the blueprint for 2NM products to customers.Since customers cannot transfer orders to Samsung and Intel, they can only release orders according to TSMC, which is also the key to TSMC's capable of fully grasping the scale of 2nm production capacity.Wei Zhe's family previously said that the demand for the 2nm process is huge. At present, the planned 2NM production capacity is more than 3nm. It is expected that mass production will begin in 2025. At the same time, the demand for advanced package of COWOS is far exceeding the supply.

However, industry insiders further pointed out that TSMC continued to increase the quotation of foundry, which is more difficult to apply for customers.The main reason is that PC and mobile phone market conditions have risen slowly. In 2025, there may not be a V -type recovery. The price increase may be appropriate to suppress the buying.At present, only Ai Weida and other AI chip companies have the power to negotiate the price increase to the price increase to customers.

The rise in the price of TSMC's advanced process means that the development cost is getting higher and higher.Some semiconductor manufacturers analyze that the development cost of advanced process has grown index.IC design high -level disclosure that 28nm development costs are about $ 50 million, and 16nm needs to invest $ 100 million, and the cost of 5nm is as high as US $ 550 million, including IP license, software verification, design architecture and other links.The investment in foundries is a huge sum of money. Taking the research and development cost of 3nm process as an example, the R & D agency believes that it is necessary to invest 40 to 5 billion US dollars, and the cost of constructing a 3nm factory is at least 15 billion to 20 billion US dollars.

Supply chain people said that the investment in advanced processes is a long and resource -consuming process. R & D is indispensable for all aspects of manpower, equipment, software, and materials, and often takes 7 to 10 years.In terms of 2nm, the path of the 2016 was quite clear, but the details of the test schedule were gradually clear until the recent trial time.The more advanced processes go down, the number and complexity of the mask rises significantly, and the improvement of the yield is becoming more difficult. It is a test for all supply chains.However, once verification is verified by foundries, the supplier will not be easily replaced.

JPMorgan Chase recently reported that TSMC has made a wider IP and design service ecosystem in the semiconductor semiconductor industry than previous product cycles with the closer packaging technology, leading process technology, and the most extensive IP and design service ecosystem in the semiconductor industry.

As a key promoter of AI semiconductor, TSMC's AI processing capabilities in data centers and edge computing are increasing.In terms of division, with the growth of data centers and marginal computing for AI processing, TSMC, as the main manufacturer of AI processors, will achieve significant growth in the future.Market share.With the transformation from general calculation to acceleration calculations, as well as the continuous growth of AI training demand and the expansion of AI reasoning cases, the data center AI will become a key driving force for the semiconductor industry in the next few years.TSMC's market share in the data center AI accelerator is expected to increase from about 6% in 2023 to 19% in 2027.With the improvement of AI infrastructure and the popularization of AI use cases, the edge AI will also begin to grow. It is expected that the contribution of marginal AI to TSMC's income to TSMC will increase from zero in 2023 to 6%in 2027.

In addition, the report also pointed out that TSMC's N3 technology will bring strong orders growth in 2024 and 2025.As the AI accelerator moves towards N3, the income scale of N3 process nodes will be 48%higher than the N5 peak.By 2025, TSMC's N3 capacity is expected to reach approximately 15,000 WFP (chip wafer / month), and the income in 2026 will reach $ 31.7 billion.Morgan Chase analysts have raised their expectations slightly in fiscal 2025. It is expected that starting from 2025, the gross profit margin will begin to expand. By 2026, it will reach a level of 55-60%.-D $ 60 NT $.