The explosive demand for AI computing power is becoming the strongest growth engine in semiconductor distribution and manufacturing.September,Wen Ye, Da Lian DaThe revenue of two major global leading distributors hit a record high.TSMCSynchronously increasing; at the same time,NAND flash memory shortage for ten yearsearly warning,AMD/Broadcom cooperate with OpenAI computing power、Intel 18A PC ChipWhen major developments are implemented intensively, the trend of AI reshaping the global semiconductor supply and demand pattern is irreversible.
1. Distributor performance: driven by AI, Wenye and Dalian set records
1. Dalianda: Revenue in September was NT$89.09 billion, a monthly increase of 13%
- September: Revenue reached NT$89.09 billion (approximately 20.89 billion yuan), a monthly increase of 13%, the second highest in the same period in history.
- Q3: Revenue was NT$244.47 billion (approximately 58.59 billion yuan), a record high in a single quarter excluding exchange rate effects.
- Cumulative (January-September): NT$743.75 billion (approximately 172.52 billion yuan), +14.6% year-on-year.
- growth core: Driven by generative AIAI server, power supply, PC/NB, storage iterationDemand surged.
2. Wenye: Revenue in September was NT$134.9 billion, +59.7% year-on-year, a record high in a single month
- September: Self-consolidated revenue was NT$134.9 billion, +59.7% year-on-year and +34.8% month-on-month, setting a single-month record.
- Q3: Revenue was NT$328.9 billion, +25.9% year-on-year and +26.8% month-on-month, exceeding the financial forecast upper limit (NT$283.5-299.5 billion).
- Cumulative (January-September): NT$835.9 billion, +19.8% year-on-year.
- growth core:Strong shipments of AI-related products+ Smartphone peak season + European and American markets recover.
3. TSMC: Revenue in September was NT$330.98 billion, +31.4% year-on-year
- September: Sales volume was NT$330.98 billion, +31.4% year-on-year.
- Q3: Revenue was NT$989.92 billion, +30% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.
- Cumulative (January-September): NT$2.76 trillion, +36.4% year-on-year.
- growth core:Demand for AI chips surges, advanced processes (3nm/5nm/7nm) account for over 74%.
2. Storage industry: NAND shortage warning for ten years, AI reconstructs supply and demand
1. Phison CEO: NAND flash memory will be in short supply for 10 years
- core judgment: There will be a serious shortage of NAND flash memory starting in 2026,Lasts up to 10 years, a once-in-a-lifetime super cycle.
- demand side: The demand for AI inference/training has exploded, and the proportion of SSD in the data center has jumped from 20% to 80%–100%; the flash memory configuration of a single AI server has increased from 64TB to 96–120TB.
- supply side: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron diverted large amounts of capital toHBM, NAND production expansion is cautious; DDR4 production lines are dismantled and switched to DDR5, exacerbating structural shortages.
- price impact: NAND prices have doubled in half a year, with 1TB TLC rising from US$4.8 to US$10.7, and original manufacturers have suspended quotations many times.
2. Industry chain dynamics: Domestic production is accelerating, and storage price increases are transmitted to the entire chain
- Dike shares: Acquired 62.5% equity of Jiangsu Jingkai for RMB 300 million to develop advanced DRAM packaging and testing.
- Shengbang Shares: Acquired 77.54% equity of Yicunxin and entered into non-volatile storage and analog chips.
- Rockchip: The shortage of DDR4 drives customers to transform to DDR5, which affects Q3 growth in the short term, but continues to grow at a high rate in the medium and long term.
3. AI computing power infrastructure: giant acceleration slots, OpenAI dual-path layout
1. AMD×OpenAI: 6 GW GPU long-term supply agreement
- Signed multi-year, multi-generation product agreement based onAMD Instinct GPUPowering OpenAI’s next-generation AI infrastructure.
- First 1 GWMI450 GPUDeployed in the second half of 2026; collaboration extends to future generations such as MI350X.
- Strategic significance: OpenAI reduces its dependence on NVIDIA, and AMD enters the top AI computing power supply chain.
2. Broadcom ×OpenAI: 10 GW custom AI accelerator + 800G NIC
- joint development10 GW of custom AI accelerator, using BroadcomEthernet + CPOThe full-stack solution will be deployed in the second half of 2026.
- launchThor Ultra (800G AI Ethernet Network Card), the industry’s first 800G NIC, can interconnect hundreds of thousands of XPUs and support trillion-parameter models.
- launchTomahawk 6-Davisson, 102.4Tbps CPO switching chip, building an open Ethernet AI network ecosystem.
3. Microchip: The world’s first 3nm PCIe Gen6 switch
- support160 channels, 64GT/s/channel, providing a CPU/GPU/storage high-speed interconnection base for AI clusters.
4. Terminals and chips: AI penetrates PCs/robots, and process iterations accelerate
1. Intel: 18A process Panther Lake PC chip
- For high-end AI notebooks, the GPU/CPU performance is 50% higher than Lunar Lake**.
- Mass production will ramp up at the end of 2025 and will be fully launched in January 2026 to compete for PC market share.
2. Meixinsheng: Robot/AI end-side chips are shipped in batches
- DToF chips are mass-produced, entering well-known robot brands; entering AR/AI glasses customers, it is expected to increase sales.
3. Smartphones: Q3 +3% year-on-year, storage costs squeeze profits
- Omdia: Q3 global shipments in 2025 will increase by 3% year-on-year; Samsung (19%), Apple (18%), and Xiaomi (14%) lead the list.
- Hidden worries: Storage price increases have led to rising BOM costs, putting pressure on profitability; manufacturers compete for AI/data center production capacity, exacerbating the shortage of terminal storage.
5. Core conclusions and trends
- AI becomes the number one engine for semiconductor growth: The performance of distributors (Wen Ye/Dalianda) and foundries (TSMC) has been fully verified, and the demand for AI servers, storage, and network chips continues to explode.
- Storage super cycle established: Ten years of shortage of NAND, structural shortage of DDR4/DDR5, prices continue to rise, and domestic substitution is accelerating.
- Computing infrastructure reconstruction: Adopted by OpenAIAMD GPU + Broadcom NetworkDual paths challenge NVIDIA’s dominance; PCIe 6.0, CPO and other technologies accelerate the implementation of AI clusters.
- Supply chain security first: Original factory production capacity is concentrated in high-value areas, and distributors need to strengthenInventory management, long-term agreements, alternative material plans, balancing short-term profits and long-term risks.