Since the fourth quarter, the most important trends in the component market are undoubtedly the Nexperia incident and the overall price increase of memory.Recently, the pattern of hotly searched material numbers in the Chuangxin Index has also changed from the norm. Most of them emerge around these two variables, clearly showing the market trend of Nexperia fading and memory taking the lead, which reflects the profound changes in the supply chain.
Anshi Materials: After passing the peak of popularity, we still need to continue to pay attention
Entering November, Nexperia's material popularity has cooled down significantly compared to the peak in late October. Behind this change is that the irrational purchasing boom driven by panic stocking and supply chain uncertainty has gradually receded. The market is returning to rationality, and real demand conditions are gradually emerging.Multiple factors such as the stabilization of expectations brought about by policy exemptions, the calming of market sentiment, and the continued advancement of alternatives have jointly promoted this trend.
Source: Chuangxin Index Click to enlarge
The above-mentioned data on search volume changes for recently popular Nexperia materials show that in the week from November 10 to 16, the search volume for related material numbers dropped significantly compared with the weekly average at the end of October, indicating that the ebb in popularity is an overall trend rather than an accidental fluctuation of individual models.It is worth noting that most of the devices in the list have AEC-Q101 (discrete devices) or AEC-Q100 (integrated circuits) automotive certification, which directly confirms the previous high search popularity and is highly related to the strong demand and centralized stocking behavior in the automotive electronics field.
Specifically, the popular material numbers are concentrated in basic discrete devices such as MOSFETs (such as BUK9K17-60E), diodes (such as BAV99-Q), transistors (such as BC846B-Q), and logic chips such as 74HC595.As capillaries that make up electronic systems, this type of device has a wide range of applications and is highly replaceable, laying the foundation for the advancement of subsequent alternatives.
In terms of alternatives, in the international original factory camp, ON Semiconductor, Infineon, TI, Vishay, Diodes and other companies are in direct competition with Nexperia and can provide mature alternative material numbers; among domestic brands, China Resources Micro, Yangjie Technology, Silan Micro, China Microelectronics, New Clean Energy, etc. have also entered the scope of alternative selection and have the ability to supply batches.As the replacement process on the application side continues to advance, more and more Nexperia devices have been replaced, and the search volume for related part numbers will gradually return to normal levels.
From the supply side, positive signals have emerged, and some Nexperia finished products have resumed shipments to car companies. However, the complete restoration of the supply chain and the complete resolution of the situation still need to be further advanced.Therefore, the subsequent development of the Anshi incident, the popularity fluctuations and price changes of related materials still require continued focus.
Memory: Rising across the board, old friend’s popularity hits new highs
While the popularity of Nexperia materials is gradually calming down, the memory market is ushering in a full-scale explosion, taking over the hot search baton.In the middle of the year, the hot searches for memory were still limited to niche specifications such as DDR4. However, as the supply and demand pattern continues to evolve, the price increase has spread to all categories. The hot search for material numbers in the Chuangxin Index clearly shows this trend. There are both core material numbers that have continued to gain popularity since the middle of the year, as well as new popular brands and categories, which together outline the overall picture of this round of memory price increases.
Source: Chuangxin Index Click to enlarge
As niche DRAM, DDR3/DDR3L is still widely used in cost-sensitive, long product life cycle fields such as network communications, industrial control, and automotive electronics, and should have maintained sufficient supply.However, due to the capacity squeeze effect in the DRAM field, global storage manufacturers have shifted their production capacity to the more profitable HBM and DDR5, and have directly cut off supply or significantly reduced DDR3 production capacity, resulting in a serious shortage of supply in the market. Search volume for related material numbers surged significantly in November, becoming a new highlight in hot searches.
In terms of DDR4, based on the Chuangxin Index data, its hot search popularity has shown two peaks this year: the first wave appeared in the middle of the year, corresponding to the news of the discontinuation of production and supply of DDR4; the recent second wave of increase is a further strengthening of the tight supply situation, coupled with the current market atmosphere of rising memory prices across the board, the popularity continues to rise.As a mainstream storage specification in servers, data centers, automotive electronics and other fields, the popularity of DDR4 has increased, which directly reflects the urgent procurement needs of downstream companies and also confirms the intensification of the contradiction between supply and demand.According to spot market data, since mid-October, the average price of DDR4 16G has increased by as much as 43% compared to the previous month, and the price increase has been rapid.
Source: Chuangxin Index
In terms of price, taking the 8Gb capacity DDR4 memory K4A8G165WC-BCTD as an example, Chuangxin Index data shows that the price of this material number suddenly rose to around 60 yuan due to the news of production discontinuation in the middle of the year. Recently, its price has once again experienced a high-slope increase, exceeding 95 yuan, and the upward momentum is still continuing, becoming a typical representative of DDR4 price increases.
Source: Chuangxin Index
In terms of NAND flash memory, the increase in the search volume of hot-searched material numbers in Chuangxin Index shows that it is in the stage of comprehensive and structural demand explosion, but the performance of different categories is clearly differentiated.Among them, niche SLC NAND with high reliability and small capacity, as well as eMMC for specific applications, have become the absolute protagonists of this round of market. The surge in search volume far exceeds the market average, which deeply reflects the severe imbalance between supply and demand. Automotive electronics, industrial automation and other fields are most significantly affected.
Regarding NOR Flash, Winbond related material numbers have been on the hot search list since the second quarter, with models such as W25Q128JVSIQ performing prominently.With the overall price increase in the flash memory market and even the entire memory market, its popularity has even surpassed the peak in the third quarter.Recently, many NOR Flash suppliers have increased their prices simultaneously, further promoting the popularity of related material numbers; it is worth noting that the popularity of this category has started to grow since the October holiday, and has reached a high before November. The rising momentum has been paved for a long time, and it is not a sudden trend in the near future.
Source: Chuangxin Index
Overall, among the recently searched memory material numbers in the Chuangxin Index, in addition to leading brands such as Samsung, Micron, and Winbond, material numbers from brands such as Nanya, Macronix, and GigaDevice have also appeared on the list. This phenomenon shows that under the overall price increase, the demand for stocking by downstream companies has increased significantly, and the scope of material search continues to expand.This sign fully demonstrates that the current tight supply of memory is global and structural, and has penetrated into all aspects of the industry, becoming a core variable affecting the component market.
Two key changes are reshaping the supply chain
The Nexperia incident and the memory price increase craze may seem independent, but in fact they are two aspects of the transformation of the semiconductor supply chain: the former reveals the impact of geopolitical factors on basic components of mature processes and exposes the fragility of the supply chain; the latter shows the siphon effect of AI computing power demand on upstream production capacity, and how this effect spreads to the full application market.Taken together, the fragility of the semiconductor supply chain and the urgency of making up for shortcomings are further highlighted.
For these two key supply chain variables, long-term and continuous tracking is crucial.The real-time prices, inventory dynamics, and hot search changes of more materials can be queried through the Chuangxin Index to accurately grasp supply chain trends.Obtain core information such as detailed model prices, inventory status, batch structure, etc. with one click. Click to activate the core index service, so that you can know the core information and win in the number!
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