[Core Information] ON Semiconductor's full-year revenue fell by 14%, institutions expect DRAM prices to fall

1. ON Semiconductor in 2024: Revenue declines, but cash flow bucks the trend and surges

• Q4 results: Revenue$1.73 billion(YoY - 14.6%); gross profit margin45.2%(-1.5pct); Net profit$380 million(-32.5%).The three major departments declined across the board: Power Solutions (PSG) -16%, Analog Mixed Signal (AMG) -18%, and Intelligent Sensing (ISG) -2%.
• full year results: RevenueUS$7.082 billion(YoY - 14%); gross profit margin45.4%(-1.7pct); net profit$1.573 billion（-28%）。
• Highlights: All year roundFree cash flow $1.2 billion, year-on-year3x increase.Main reason:Cost optimization, increased SiC high gross profit ratio, shrinking capital expenditures, and effective inventory control。
• 2025 Q1 Outlook: RevenueUS$1.35–1.45 billion; Gross profit margin38.9%–40.9%。

2. Omdia: DRAM prices will continue to fall in the first three quarters of 2025

• price prediction：
  • First Half: PC/Server/Mobile DRAMGenerally down about 10%
  • Third quarter:5% more
  • 64GB Server DDR5: 2024 Q4$270 → 2025 Q1 $246 → Q2 $228→ end of year orDropped below $200
• main cause：IT terminal demand is weak + Changxin Storage joins DDR5 supply, exacerbating oversupply.
• Inflection point signal: Whether it can rebound in the second half of the year depends onDownstream destocking progress and demand recovery。

3. Tianfeng Securities: SMIC will benefit from the increase in device-side AI

• Be optimistic about the logic:Domestic AI chip replacement accelerates、Local demand for computing power is stronger than global demand。
• Core support:
  • SMIC inMainland China’s advanced manufacturing processscarce,Strong bargaining power。
  • 3Q24 revenue structure:Consumer electronics 42.6% + connected wearables 8.2%, will benefit from the outbreak of AI terminals.
  • Popularization of domestically produced large models promotesAI mobile phone / IoT / edge computingDemand for chips has surged.

4. TSMC: Q1 revenue was affected by the earthquake, but the full-year outlook remains unchanged

• event: January 21, Taiwan6.4 magnitude earthquake+ aftershocks, causingScrapping of in-process wafers。
• financial impact：
  • Q1 revenue: revised down toLow end of the $25.0–25.8 billion range
  • Earthquake losses:NT$5.3 billion(Approximately $161 million, net of insurance included in Q1)
  • Gross profit margin maintained:57%–59%;Operating profit margin46.5%–48.5%
• Take a stand: Fully resume production,Full-year performance outlook unchanged。

5. SEMI: Silicon wafer volume and price will shrink in 2024 and recover in the second half of 2025

• 2024 full year：
  • Shipments:12,266 million square inches（-2.7%）I
  • Sales:$11.5 billion（-6.5%）I
• Reason: Weak terminal demand,Inventory adjustments are slow, fab utilization rate declinesI。
• Outlook: Recovery has begun in the second half of 2024.Continued recovery in 2025 and stronger in the second half of the yearI。

6. Ming-Chi Kuo: Nvidia’s DrMOS procurement volume will exceed 150 million units in 2025

• Project:AccelerateGB300 NVL72(AI server) development.
• Purchase quantity:2025DrMOS/SPS exceeds 150 million units。
• supplier：AOS (All Nations Semiconductor) is the main company (70% share), Q2 shipment50-60 million pieces(Significantly ahead of schedule for Q4).
• cost optimization:Adopt5x5 small form factor DrMOS, unit price - 50%, single machine usage + 30%,Total cost - 35%~40%。

7. NXP acquires NPU manufacturer Kinara for US$307 million

• transaction: All cash acquisitionKinara(High performance low power consumption NPU),Completed in the first half of 2025。
• strategic value：
  • completeEdge AI computing powershort board, coverageTinyML to generative AIFull scene.
  • with NXPMCU / Processor / Security / AnalogProgram integration and strengtheningAutomotive + IndustrialAI solutions.
  • Kinara Ara-2 NPU：40TOPS/6W, support edge end30 billion parameter large modelreasoning.

8. Trade-in electronic products during the Spring Festival: sales exceed 31 billion yuan

• Total scale: Automobile/Home Appliances/Mobile PhonesSales volume 8.6 million units (sets)、Sales 31.2 billion yuan。
  • Mobile:14.1 billion yuan(highest)
  • Home appliances:10.5 billion yuan
  • Car:6.6 billion yuan
• Growth rate: Home appliances **+166%, mobile phone+182%, TV+227%** (State Administration of Taxation).
• policy：Two new(Equipment update + trade-in) Afterburner expansion, the first batch81 billion yuanSpecial treasury debt support.