Electronic rice MLCC sends recovery signal, AI server becomes the main thrust

1. Industry turning point: inventory cleared and utilization rate rebounded

• Cycle bottom confirmation: Huaxinke judges that 2024 will be the bottom of the economy, Q3 utilization rate remains at a high level of **75%-80%**, and inventory has been cleared.
• Revenue improves quarter-over-quarter: Q3 revenue is expected to reach the peak of the whole year, and Q4 is expected to be flat; driven by the increase in the proportion of high-end productsASP rises。
• Moderate start to recovery: In Q2 2024, global MLCC shipments increased **+5.4%** year-on-year, the first positive growth in two years.

2. Core driving force: AI servers drive volume and price to rise

1. Usage surge: 2,000 more high-end materials per cabinet

• NVIDIA GB200:Single cabinet added2000 pieces X6S(-55℃~105℃) high-end MLCC, more valuable than traditional servers$200 more, the price difference of some material numbers is as much as10 times。
• Double the overall dosage: AI server MLCC usage is that of a general server1.8 times；GB300 platform requires an appointment for a single unit30,000 pieces, which is 30 times that of mobile phones and 3 times that of cars. A single cabinet consumes up to440,000 pieces。

2. Structural upgrade: high capacity, high temperature, and miniaturization have become rigid needs

• Spec jump: AI servers have high power consumption and high density, and require MLCCs with high capacitance (100μF+), high temperature resistance (105℃), and small size (1608M/0402)**.
• Murata’s technological breakthrough: 1608M size realization100μFCapacity and mass production; 0402 inches (1.0×0.5mm)47μFThe product is mass-produced to meet the high-density requirements of AI servers.

3. News from major manufacturers: Murata, Huaxinco and Yageo are fully preparing for war

1. Murata (global leader, market share > 40%)

• Performance picks up: Q2 revenue in 2024421.7 billion yen (+14.7%), operating profit66.4 billion yen (+32.5%), the first increase in nine months.
• Production capacity is full: Q3 capacity utilization rate85%-90%, giving priority to AI server orders.
• Demand forecast: The AI craze started with server/edge computing,AI PC/mobile phones will take over and explode in 2025。

2. Huaxinke (Taiwanese leader)

• Outlook 2025: AI PC volume increased in the middle of the year, and new single machines were added200-300 piecesNew specifications of capacitors; optimistic about the three major growth curves of AI servers, AI PCs, and automobiles.
• price strategy: Mid- to high-end products will increase in price, and the industry will enterRegular materials are stable and high-end materials are tight.differentiation stage.

3. Yageo (Taiwanese leader)

• AI strategy: The Group’s AI-related revenue accounts for approximately5%, the goal continues to improve; the major global AI players are all Yageo customers.
• Transformation effectiveness: After the merger and acquisition, the product line is complete, covering all AI scenarios, and strives to become a big winner in the AI market.

4. Market differentiation: high-end carnival, ordinary people under pressure

• high end market: High-end MLCCs such as AI servers, automotive regulations, and optical communicationsSupply exceeds demand, prices rise, the delivery time is extended to 18-20 weeks.
• general market: Demand for consumer electronics (mobile phones/PCs) is weak and inventories are still high.Prices are under pressure and competition is fierce。

5. Future Outlook: AI PC relay in 2025, long-term growth determined

• Short term (2024Q4): AI server orders are full, supporting the high-end MLCC boom; consumer electronics is in the off-season, and the overall recovery is moderate.
• Mid-term (2025)：AI PC volume(Starting from the middle of the year), 200-300 MLCCs will be added to a single machine, becoming the second growth curve; automotive electronics continues to be stable.
• long term: AI, autonomous driving, and edge computing drive long-term growth in MLCC demand. Murata predicts AI server MLCC demand in 2025-2030Compound annual growth rate of 30%, a significant increase of 3.3 times in 2030 compared with 2025.

Conclusion