The AI-driven storage supercycle is in full swing:Micron earnings hit record high、SK Hynix follows up on price increase, the three major original manufacturers have completed a closed loop of price increases; domestic storage manufacturers have benefited simultaneously, power supplies have been upgraded simultaneously, and the storage industry chain has entered a high-prosperity stage with both volume and price rising.
1. Micron: AI drives performance explosion, data center becomes core engine
1. Q4 and full-year financial report for fiscal year 2025 (as of August 28)
- Q4 results: Revenue$11.315 billion(YoY + 46%, MoM + 21.65%); gross profit margin44.7%(YoY + 9.4pct, MoM + 7pct); Net profitUS$3.201 billion(YoY + 260%, MoM + 69.81%).
- full year results: RevenueUS$37.378 billion(YoY + 48.85%); gross profit margin40.9%(YoY + 17.2pct); Net profitUS$8.539 billion(Just $778 million the year before).
- Fiscal Year 2026 Q1 Guidance: RevenueUS$12.2–12.8 billion, EPS increased by 109.5% year-on-year, reaching a new high.
2. Core growth driver: HBM + data center
- Data center business: Revenue$3.8 billion(+120% year-on-year), accounting for total revenue49%;Cloud storage unit (CMBU) revenue$4.5 billion(QoQ +34%, gross margin 59%).
- HBM outbreak: HBM revenue +50% sequentially, accounting for data center business35%;HBM3E has been certified by NVIDIA and AMD, and its production capacity will be sold out in 2025. The order coverage rate in 2026 will exceed 80%。
- Product structure: DRAM revenue$9 billion(79%, +69% year-on-year); NAND revenue$2.3 billion(20%, +5% MoM).
2. SK Hynix: Joining the price increase, all three major original manufacturers will take action
1. Price increase implemented
- After Micron and Samsung,SK Hynix officially follows up on price increase, DRAM and NAND are increased simultaneously.
- Increase range: expected20%–30%, consistent with Samsung and Micron; automotive/industrial products increased even higher.
- Price increase logic: asThe world's largest HBM supplier, HBM’s production capacity is 2–3 times that of traditional DRAM, and supply is tighter.
2. Industry structure: price increase fully confirmed
- Micron: First to suspend quotation, DRAM/NAND rises20%–30%, highest automotive grade/industrial grade70%。
- Samsung: LPDDR4X/5/5X rises15%–30%;NAND (eMMC/UFS) rises5%–10%。
- SK Hynix: DRAM/NAND rise simultaneously20%–30%, HBM's tight production capacity supports price increases.
3. Domestic storage manufacturers: Benefit simultaneously, Q4 will be bullish across the board
1. Longsys: Storage prices increased across the board in Q4
- Prediction:Storage market prices will rise across the board in Q4 of 2025, driven by the rising demand for AI server stocking.
- Progress: Enterprise-level PCIe SSDs and RDIMMs have been introduced in batches to leading domestic companies; self-developed master controllers have been deployed cumulativelyOver 80 million pieces;UFS4.1 enters Tier1 vendor verification.
2. Dongxin Co., Ltd.: Niche storage prices rebound
- Supply and demand: Original factory production capacity is tilted towards high-value products, and niche storage supply is tightening.Prices continue to rise。
- Drivers: AI high-performance demand + consumer electronics peak season stocking, the combination of these two factors drives up prices.
- OEM: The utilization rate of mainland OEMs is high and production capacity is tight.OEM prices gradually increase。
4. Industry consensus: AI-driven storage super cycle continues
1. Institutional perspective (CITIC Securities)
- The demand for AI computing power chains (computing power chips, PCBs, power supplies, storage, servers) is strong, and overseas and domestic computing power chains are accelerating.
- Storage boom exceeds expectations:NAND/DRAM price increases exceed expectations in the second half of 2025, enterprise-level demand is strong.
- Pan-industrial demand rebounded: analog, power, and mature processes increased year-on-year, and the prosperity continued until the end of the year.
2. Cycle judgment
- Price increase cycle:Lasts until 2026, AI-driven structural mismatch of supply and demand is the core logic.
- HBM: The gap between supply and demand continues,High prosperity will continue until at least 2027, the price turning point may be in early 2028.
5. Supporting upgrades: ON Semiconductor acquires Ola to strengthen AI data center power supply
- Deal: ON Semiconductor acquires Ola SemiconductorVcore Multiphase Power Technology IP Licensing(Consideration $144 million).
- Strategy: PerfectGrid→CoreComplete power system to enhance AI serversPower density, efficiency, heat dissipation, supporting the improvement of single-rack computing power.
- Technology: Integrate SiC and Vcore technology to cover key aspects of AI infrastructure such as solid-state transformers, 800V DC power distribution, and core power supply.
6. Core conclusions and trends
- Price increases fully implemented: The three major original manufacturers, Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix, have completed the closed loop of price increases.Storage prices will enter a rapid upward channel in Q4 of 2025。
- AI is the core driver: Demand for HBM, DDR5, and enterprise-level SSDs has exploded. Original factory production capacity has been tilted towards high-value products, and consumer-level storage supply has been squeezed.
- Domestic manufacturers benefit: Longsys, Dongxin Technology, etc. have simultaneously benefited from the enterprise-level and niche storage fields, with self-research and domestic substitution accelerating.
- Collaborative upgrade of industrial chain: The increase in storage prices has driven the simultaneous growth of power supply, main control, modules and other links, and the AI data center infrastructure has been fully upgraded.