NAND Flash Memory Rises: Giants Have Kicked Off, And AI Demand Plays An Important Role

1. Prelude to price increase: Three major original manufacturers take action collectively, NAND prices are on the rise

1. The pace and magnitude of price increases

• Sandisk: In early September, it took the lead in conducting omni-channel, consumer NANDup 10%。
• Micron: DRAM/NAND quotes will be suspended in mid-September and are expected next monthIncrease 10%–25%。
• Samsung：Follow up the price increase, LPDDR4X/5/5XIncrease 15%–30%，NAND5%–10% increase。
• SK hynix: Synchronous addition, DRAM/NAND20%–30% increase, HBM's tight production capacity supports price increases.

2. Market evolution: from consolidation to general rise

• Beginning of the year: NAND supply exceeds demand, and original manufacturers are conservatively controlling production and focusing on technology upgrades.
• Starting from Q2: Production reduction and inventory reduction are effective, NAND rises moderately; Q3 contract priceQuarterly growth of 5%–10%, comprehensive index in the first half of the yearup 9.2%。
• Q4: Explosive demand for AI + peak season stocking + HDD shortage, price increases are accelerating across the board.

2. Core driving force: AI reconstructs storage needs, QLC becomes the focus

1. AI demand: a comprehensive explosion from computing power to storage power

• AI server: Stand-alone NAND requirements are those of traditional servers5–6 times, the storage capacity of a single unit exceeds70TB。
• Just needed for reasoning: Large model inference requires high-frequency access to massive parameters and KV cache, and ** enterprise-class SSD (eSSD) ** becomes the core carrier.
• Data center proportion: Server NAND accounts for total global demand in 202530%, will be further improved in 2026.
• Capacity Siphon: The three major original manufacturers will70%+ advanced production capacityMoving to HBM with high-end DDR5, squeezing NAND supply.

2. QLC flash memory: the optimal solution for AI storage, ushering in an explosive turning point

• Technical advantages: The same wafer area has more memory than TLC30%Data, cost per unit capacity20%–30% reduction。
• Market structure: QLC’s share of NAND production capacity in 202520%, **45%+** for servers (warm/cold data).
• technological progress：
  • SK Hynix:321 layer QLCMass production, single chip2TB。
  • Micron: 276-layer 2600 series, adaptive write optimized performance.
  • Samsung: The 9th generation V-NAND QLC has been postponed to the first half of 2026, and will temporarily use 176-layer products.
  • Kioxia: LC9 Series Launched245.76TBEnterprise-class SSD, refreshing single disk capacity record.
• Outbreak prediction: TrendForce estimatesQLC SSD shipments will explode in 2026, data center penetration rateOver 60%。

3. HDD shortage: accelerating SSD replacement and driving up QLC demand

• Nearline HDDs are seriously out of stock, delivery times are long, and CSPs are turning quicklyQLC Enterprise SSD, the influx of urgent orders aggravated NAND tension.
• Data center SSD/HDD ratio from2:8towards8:10Rapid evolution, the proportion of SSD continues to increase.

3. Peak season for consumer electronics: Increasing demand superimposes, further pushing up prices

1. Apple: Large capacity + multi-supplier strategy

• iPhone 17 series: basic capacity256GB, Pro version DRAM12GB, the total demand increased significantly.
• Supply chain: cooperative manufacturers expanded to5 homes, integrating all major storage manufacturers to deal with price increases and supply risks.

2. Android camp: large capacity + AI function driven

• New products are released in a centralized manner, storage capacity is generally upgraded, and selling points such as generative AI and folding screens are added to drive storage demand.

3. Supply shock: Micron exits mobile NAND

• Micron's strategic withdrawal from the mobile NAND market has exacerbated the supply shortage of consumer-grade NAND and become an important driver of price increases.

4. Supply side: production control + production capacity tilt, the gap between supply and demand continues to expand

1. Original factory strategy: reduce production to protect prices + abandon lows and chase highs

• The industry suffered losses in the first two years, and the three major original manufacturersCut capital expenditures and proactively reduce production, global NAND inventories fell to3–4 weeksBelow the safety lineZhejiang Provincial Economic Information Center。
• Production capacity directionHBM, enterprise SSD, high-end DDR5High-margin products are tilted, and consumer-grade NAND supply is squeezed15%–20%。

2. Production capacity rigidity: cannot be alleviated in the short term

• New wafer fab needs1.5–2 years, the earliest new production capacitySecond half of 2027Released, shortages persist.
• NAND supply growth in 202615.6%, lower than demand growth21.1%, the gap between supply and demand widens.

5. Industry trends: AI dominates the super cycle and traditional laws weaken

1. cyclical qualitative change: This round of price increases is driven by AI.Weakening the traditional off-peak and peak seasons, more sustainable.
2. Restructuring：
   • Enterprise-level SSD becomes the largest demand for NAND, accounting for 202748%, beyond mobile phones and PCs.
   • QLC becomes mainstream, accounting for NAND demand in 202629%, data center adoption rate45%。
3. Price increases continue: Estimated arrivalend of 2027, the growth rate will reach its peak in Q1 of 2026, and the growth rate of enterprise-class SSD80%–100%。
4. Domestic substitution accelerates: Yangtze Memory, Longsys, etc. are rapidly increasing their volume in the enterprise-level and niche NAND fields, impacting international pricing power.

6. Core Conclusions