The original factory’s suspension of production triggered the DDR4 market: the price surpassed that of DDR5, and the hot-sought models are in short supply (2025.6.20)

1. The core of DDR4 skyrocketing: three major original manufacturers have stopped production simultaneously, and supply has shrunk like a cliff.

1. Major DDR4 manufacturers stop production at key nodes

• Samsung
  • Notifying customers in April 2025: DDR4 modules will beEOL end of 2025
  • Stop 1y/1z nm8Gb LPDDR4produce
  • Various 8GB/16GB DDR4 SODIMM/UDIMM have been discontinued.Last shipping date: December 10, 2025
• Micron
  • Notification has been sentDDR4/LPDDR4 discontinued
  • Supply will be gradually stopped in the next 2-3 quarters.Only car specification/industrial customization production capacity reserved
  • Completely withdraw from the PC and data center consumer DDR4 market
• SK hynix
  • DDR4 production capacity share has increased from30% → 20%
  • Dalian factoryConversion to HBM production, no additional DDR4 investment will be added

2. Price increase status: the highest increase in a single day is 8%, the cumulative increase is 20%–30%, and the price exceeds DDR5

• 8Gb/16Gb DDR4 chipsA one-day increase of nearly 8%
• Cumulative increase in recent weeks20%–30%
• Some DDR4 16Gb particle prices1 times that of DDR5 with the same capacity, the first time in history that the
• South AsiaceaePause DDR4 offer, the market has a strong reluctance to sell

3. Root cause

2. Analysis of DDR4 hot-search models: Micron and Samsung lead the way, with three-way resonance between volume and price

1. Micron MT40A512M16TB-062E:R

• Specifications:8Gb DDR4，512Mx16，1.2V，3200MT/s，0~95℃
• Market performance:
  • search volumeskyrocketing
  • pricesubstantial increase
  • Inventoryfast lower
• Background: Micron officially announced EOL and triggered centralized stocking. It has been preheated from April to May and will fully explode in June.

2. Samsung K4A8G165WC-BCTD

• Specifications:8Gb DDR4，512Mx16，1.2V，2666Mbps，-40~95℃
• Market performance:
  • Search volume and prices surge simultaneously
  • Inventory is high in the early stage,A significant decline in recent weeks, demand rigidity appears

3. Overall trend

• The Micron model is the most popular,Industrial-grade IT suffixes (-40~95℃) are particularly in demand
• SK Hynix’s same model of DDR4 follows the trend
• The first wave of stocking has appeared in April and May, and after the actual production was suspended in JuneThe second round of pursuit is more intense

3. Application-side dilemma: Although DDR5 is good, it is extremely difficult to migrate from the existing market

1. DDR5 has obvious advantages, but the replacement cost is extremely high

• DDR5: Rate 6400–8400MT/s, voltage 1.1V, integrated PMIC, higher performance and energy efficiency
• ButIndustrial, automotive, security, TVOther niche markets:
  • Solution stability takes precedence over performance
  • Long redesign and verification cycle
  • The cost of changing the board is high and it is impossible to switch in the short term.

2. Demand sustainability forecast

• Before 2026, 80% of industrial control/vehicle equipment will still use DDR4 or LPDDR5
• DDR5 penetrates niche market, needs to wait for price to dropLess than 1.2 times that of DDR4
• DDR4 will usher inA several-year transition period for shortages and price increases

4. Conclusion on the market outlook and stocking suggestions

1. DDR4 price increase has not yet peaked

   Original factories continue to reduce production + channels are reluctant to sell + urgently need to stock up, so prices still have room to rise.
2. Industrial/automotive DDR4 will become scarce

   The original factory only retains a small amount of car-standard production capacity, and the growth rate of related models will far exceed that of consumer grade.
3. Those who just need to lock in the goods as soon as possible, but those who don’t need to speed up DDR5 migration

   In the short term, we can rely on stocking up to overcome the gap, but in the long term, we must promote plan switching.
4. Domestic storage welcomes replacement window

   Domestic DDR4/DDR5 such as Changxin is expected to quickly enter the industrial control, vehicle and home appliance supply chains in this round of switching.