Core Index Analysis Report for January 2025: Destocking continues, high-end analog and network communication materials are strong

1. Market Overview: Mainly destocking in off-season, with local hot spots highlighted

• overall atmosphere: The Spring Festival holiday caused search volume and transaction volume to drop by 30% to 40%, and the market entered the traditional off-season.
• Cycle judgment: The 2024 annual reports of major international manufacturers (TI/ST/NXP/Infineon, etc.) focus on disclosure:Performance declines and inventory days rise, confirmThe destocking cycle continues。
• Domestic highlights: Locally listed IC companiesGenerally pre-profit and significant year-on-year growth, domestic substitution is strongly promoted in many fields.
• price trend: The overall price is weak, mainly falling month-on-month;Hot models (search volume surges) simultaneously increase prices, the supply and demand drive is clear.

2. Hot search categories/brands: MCU heating, simulation and storage changes

1. Top 10 popular categories (search volume generally dropped, structure switching)

• Ranking changes：
  • MCUrise toNo. 2(STM32 series high volume)
  • Flash flash memory, DAC digital-to-analog converterNew to the top ten
  • General logic and interface chips are becoming less popular
• signal：Control class, storage class, signal chain classDemand is relatively rigid, making it a safe haven in the off-season.

2. Popular brands TOP10 (stable pattern)

• The brand list is the same as last month, with small changes in rankings:TI, ST, ADI, Microchip, NXP, Infineon, ON Semiconductor, Renesas, Murata, Yageo
• Highlights：ADI (including LT series)Both popularity and price increased, and its performance was significantly better than that of its peers.

3. Hot search TOP50: STM32 leads the way, ADI and Microchip star models explode

• STM32 family: The number of entries on the list has increased significantly,STM32G070CBT6search volumesubstantial growth
• Microchip：DSPIC30F2010-30I/SPThe new year is hot again (industrial control/motor mainstream)
• ADI：LTM4644IY / LTM4644IY#PBF(Power module) pre-holiday search volumesurge, prices rise simultaneously
• commonality: The above hot spots all belong toIndustry/Communication/Automotive RegulationIn high-reliability scenarios, the consumer electronics category is generally deserted.

4. Soaring list TOP20: Network communication + high-end simulation become the absolute main line

1. Network communication (highest proportion)
   • Interface/transceiver, vehicle network chip, communication power supply
   • Representatives: TI, ADI, Maxim related communication interfaces and power management
2. High-end analog/power supply (mainly ADI/LT)
   • Highly integrated power modules, precision operational amplifiers, data conversion, isolation devices
3. Others: Motion sensing, industrial control, SMPS switching power supply related stocking needs

5. Inventory fluctuation list: The differentiation between supply and demand is clear at a glance

1. Top 10 inventory growth (oversupply, high pressure to destock)

• toGeneral MCU, consumer logic, low-end interface, old storageMainly
• Representatives: STM32 some general models, traditional DDR3, consumer-grade Flash

2. Inventory decline TOP10 (tight demand, rapid channel depletion)

• Focus on:ADI high-end analog, automotive-grade MCU/interface, industrial-grade power supply, communication-specific chips
• Representative: ADI LTM/LT series, ST automotive MCU, automotive transceiver

6. Market Segments: Storage Winter, Analog Strong

1. Memory (comprehensive trough, original factory production reduction)

• NAND Flash: Prices continue to fall, industry losses; Samsung / Kioxia / MicronCut production and protect prices, expectedPrices will rebound in the second half of 2025
• DRAM: The decline spreads from DDR4 to DDR5; server contract prices weaken; the plans of the three major manufacturersDDR3/DDR4 will be discontinued within the year, strive to switch to HBM/DDR5 production

2. Analog chip (outstanding)

• ADI: Order recovery, strong gross profit margin, multiple modelsBoth volume and price rise, becoming an industry benchmark
• TI/Maxim: General products are under pressure, butIndustrial/Automotive High Reliability Product LineRobust

3. MCU and logic

• General purpose 32-bit MCU: High inventory, fierce price war (STM32 universal series)
• Automotive/Industrial MCU: Stable demand, long delivery time, firm price

7. Core Conclusions and Procurement Strategy Suggestions

1. Three core trends

1. cycle position: The entire industry is still inDestocking in the middle and late stages, expectedMid-2025 – second halfgradual improvement
2. structural bull market：Network communications, high-end simulation, automotive grade, industrial controlFour major tracksTravel through cycles
3. Domestic substitution accelerates: Local IC in the mid-to-high-end and automotive fieldsBoth share and performance increased

2. Procurement strategy (January–April)

• Strategic stocking：ADI/LT, automotive MCU/interface, communication dedicated chip(Inventories fall, prices rise)
• Restock carefully: General MCU, consumption logic, consumption storage (high inventory, price decline)
• Domestic replacement: Increase localAnalog, power supply, automotive MCUImport and hedge the delivery time and price risks of major international manufacturers

3. Outlook for the second half of the year

• storage: The effect of production reduction appears,NAND/DDR5 prices rebound from Q3
• Analog/Power: AI servers, communications, and automotive electronics continue to drive,High prosperity continues
• Whole：2025 second halfThe industry is expected to usher inturning point for full recovery