September 2024 Chuangxin Index Analysis Report - Frequent layout of wafer fabs, domestic substitution expands share

1. Overall market overview in September

1. The collective expansion layout of wafer fabs: TSMC is increasing its advanced processes and advanced packaging; Samsung and Intel are adjusting their production expansion plans; the world's leading companies are joining hands with NXP to expand mature processes; India is planning to implement large-scale semiconductors, and foreign companies such as ADI are following up on investment.
2. Industry core momentum:AI computing power, network communicationsThe demand for such materials is strong; the recovery of consumer electronics is sluggish, the storage market has reached an inflection point, general ICs continue to destock, and inventory levels are adjusted to high levels.
3. Segmented demand differentiation: growth of mobile phones and PCs is weak, while wearable devices and light home appliances have become rigid demand supports;Accelerate the introduction of domestic chips and domestic solutions, the replacement share continues to increase.

2. Trends of TOP10 most searched materials in September

1. ST Series MCU（STM32F103C8T6/F030C8T6/F405RGT6/F407VET6）
   Industry, industrial control, and consumer products are in general demand, search volume generally declined, prices rose slightly, and channel inventory was slowly digested.
2. TI General Analog Devices
   The demand for ULN2803ADWR and TPS5430DDAR is stable, prices fluctuate slightly, and the demand for power supply devices is rising steadily.
3. AI super premium material number

• XCF32PFSG48C (Xilinx FPGA configuration storage): Search volume + 28.89%,Price surged 149.82%；
• KHAA84901B-JC17 (Samsung HBM2E): AI server is in urgent demand, search volume +25.98%, quotation remains high and stable.

4. ADI High Precision ADC
   AD7606BSTZ is in urgent demand for industrial acquisition, the search volume has dropped significantly, and the price has dropped significantly month-on-month.
5. Power supply voltage stabilizing device
   The demand for general-purpose LDOs such as AMS1117-3.3 is stable, and terminal stocking drives prices up slightly.

3. Top 10 inventory fluctuations in September: supply and demand are differentiated, domestic substitution is accelerating

1. International major manufacturers of general-purpose devices (TI, ADI, Microchip) have adequate early stockings, but demand in September is flat and inventories are differentiated;
2. The demand for power supply, network, optocoupler and other sub-categories is picking up, and the inventory consumption of MPS power IC and Marvell network chip is accelerating;
3. Storage market weakens: Nanya's DDR4 inventory rises, indicating downward pressure on memory prices;
4. Strong growth in domestic chips: Domestic substitution of Serip current sampling amplifiers and Sichuan Tu micro digital isolators is accelerating, demand is rising, inventories continue to decline, and local market share is steadily expanding.

4. Summary of supply and demand of subdivided categories

1. General IC and Analog/MCU

2. Memory industry

• Prices of consumer-grade DDR4, NAND flash memory, and TLC/MLC wafers have declined month-on-month;
• Major manufacturers such as Kingston cut prices to clear inventory, and consumer storage entered the price reduction channel;
• The demand for AI high-value-added storage (HBM, enterprise-class SSD) continues to be booming and is growing against the trend.

3. Communication and computing chips

4. Passive components

5. Core Trends of the Industry

1. The expansion of global wafer production capacity is accelerating, mature processes and advanced processes are being deployed simultaneously, and supply is gradually loosening;
2. Structural differentiation of the market: consumer electronics is weak, AI and industrial boom continue;
3. Domestic substitution has entered the implementation stage, and basic components such as isolators, operational amplifiers, and power ICs are being replaced at an accelerated pace;
4. The inflection point of the storage cycle appears, consumer-grade storage prices are falling, and high-end computing power storage maintains high premiums.