[Core News] AI applications push up the price of copper foil substrates, and TSMC’s advanced technology and packaging are reported to increase prices again

1. Mid- to low-end CCL prices rose nearly 10% due to tight production capacity, with AI becoming the core driver

• Supply side: The demand for AI servers has exploded, and manufacturers have prioritized upgrading production lines to adapt to high-end CCL, resulting in a contraction of mid- and low-end production capacity.
• demand side: AI PC motherboard material upgrades (unit price increased by 15%-20%), demand for traditional servers recovered in the second half of the year, dually boosting demand for mid- to low-end CCL.
• Cost pass-through: The pressure of price increases on upstream raw materials has been completely passed on to the downstream, and the profits of CCL manufacturers have improved significantly.

2. TSMC’s 3nm foundry prices will rise by more than 5%, and advanced packaging will rise by 10%-20% next year

• Capacity shortage: 3nm production capacity is fully covered by seven major customers including Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm. Orders are scheduled until 2026, and supply exceeds demand, driving up prices.
• Cost pass-through: The quotation of Qualcomm Snapdragon 8 Gen 4 (N3E process) has increased by 25%-30% compared to the previous generation to US$190-200, passing on TSMC’s foundry costs.

3. HBM’s orders are overflowing and occupying DDR5 production capacity, which may increase by another 10%-20% before the end of the year.

• Capacity squeeze: HBM gives priority to occupying DRAM production capacity, exacerbating the tight supply and demand of DDR5, module manufacturers expectDDR5 will rise another 10%-20% before the end of the year。
• Risk warning: Excessively high prices may inhibit downstream purchasing intentions and delay the increase in penetration rate.

4. Samsung cooperates with Synopsys to optimize the 2nm process for mass production next year

• Performance improvements: Compared with FinFET, transistor performance is improved by 11%-46%, leakage is reduced by 50%, and process variability is reduced by 26%.
• Market layout: Qualcomm is considering the dual foundry model between Samsung and TSMC, and Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 may use Samsung’s 2nm process.

5. Kioxia reaches full production of NAND flash memory and receives 750 billion yen in financing

• financial support: Acquired by Sumitomo Mitsui, Mitsubishi UFJ and other banks750 billion yen financing(540 billion yen refinancing + 210 billion yen new credit) for equipment renewal and capacity maintenance.