Starting From “Core”: Decoding The Industry Chain Chain Reaction Behind AI-Driven Storage Price Increase

At the end of 2025, storage will usher in the sharpest price increase in history: mainstream spot prices have increased by more than 300% since September, with prices rising several times a day becoming the norm. The industry has recognized that a storage super cycle that will last several years has begun.

1. Core logic: AI reconstructs supply and demand, structural shortages are irreversible

This round of price increases is not a consumer electronics cycle, but a complete misalignment of supply and demand caused by AI computing power:

A single AI server requires 8 times the DRAM and 3 times the NAND requirement of an ordinary server.

Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are making every effort to shift production capacity to high-profit products such as HBM and DDR5.

Mature process DDR4 has been severely squeezed, supply has plummeted, and the price of DDR4 has exceeded that of DDR5.

The production expansion cycle of wafer fabs lasts for more than 2 years, and short-term production capacity cannot be filled.

Result:

HBM orders are locked across the board, DDR4 is skyrocketing, eMMC/NAND is in short supply, and storage has entered a seller’s market.

2. Chain reaction of the industrial chain: sharp differentiation between upstream and downstream

1. Upstream: Equipment and wafer foundry will fully benefit

Orders from storage equipment manufacturers have increased significantly (Northern Huachuang, etc.)

SMIC’s capacity utilization rate remains high at **95.8%**

2. Midstream: The volume and price of storage module manufacturers are rising, and profits are soaring

Product prices have risen sharply in line with spot prices, and revenue and net profit have improved significantly simultaneously.

3. Downstream: Consumer electronics is under the most severe pressure

Storage accounts for 10%~20% of the cost of mobile phone/PC hardware, and the cost has skyrocketed.

Large manufacturers can buffer through long-term agreements and price increases; profits of small and medium-sized brands and low-end models will be broken down

The industry may experience reverse allocation reductions: standard memory/flash memory capacity will be reduced, and the trend of capacity upgrades will be reversed.

Some demand shifts to the second-hand market

3. Long-term pattern: industry revaluation + domestic alternative gold window

The value of the storage industry is completely revalued

Competition has shifted from scale involution to technical barriers + pricing power, and high-end products such as HBM have broken the low gross profit pattern.

International giants shrink consumer market

Micron and others have withdrawn from consumer-grade storage and are fully investing in AI and data centers, leaving a huge market vacuum.

Domestic storage faces historic opportunities

Yangtze Memory and Changxin Memory continue to make breakthroughs in high-end NAND and DRAM processes

Longsys, Demingli and other module manufacturers raise funds to increase investment in AI high-end storage

Policies support the independent control of computing power + storage power, and the overall acceleration of localization

Summary

This is not an ordinary price increase, but a paradigm shift in the storage industry in the AI era.

The super cycle lasts for several years, with downstream pressure, midstream outbreak, upstream benefit, and domestic rise.

The entire semiconductor industry is undergoing a complete reshaping in terms of technology, structure, and value.