[Core Information] NAND Flash Memory Prices Are Expected To Rise In The Fourth Quarter, And Demand For QLC Surges

1. NAND flash memory: Prices increased by 5%-10% in Q4, and QLC became the core driving force

1. Price Reversal: From Consolidation to General Increase

• Original expectation: consumer demand is overdrawn in the first half of the year, and prices will enter consolidation in Q4.
• Reality reversal:HDD is seriously out of stock + delivery time is extended, CSP (cloud service provider) quickly shifts storage needs toQLC Enterprise SSD, urgent orders poured in; SanDisk took the lead to rise by 10%, Micron suspended quotations, and the atmosphere on the supply side became stronger.
• Institutional forecast: TrendForce confirmed by TrendForce,Q4 NAND flash memory contract prices will increase by 5%-10% across the board in 2025。

2. Core driver: QLC demand explodes, AI reconstructs storage landscape

• demand side: AI server SSD configuration upgraded from 64TB to 96TB/120TB,QLC becomes the first choice due to high density and low cost; HDD proportion dropped from 90% to 80%, SSD proportion quickly increased to 20% and headed towards 80%-100%.
• supply side: Supply has tightened after original factories cut production and destocked, and production capacity has declined.Large capacity QLC, HBM, DDR5The supply of consumer-grade NAND has been squeezed due to the tilt towards high-value products.
• Cycle judgment: Beijing Junzheng said,The storage price increase cycle may continue until 2026, the consumer side is more obvious.

3. Impact on the industrial chain

• Original factory: Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix increased the proportion of QLC output and suspended quotations to control prices.
• Modules / Distribution: Inventory appreciation and bargaining power increase, but cash flow and price decline risks need to be dealt with.
• downstream: The BOM costs of servers, PCs, and mobile phones are rising, and terminal prices are under pressure.

2. Industry mergers and acquisitions: accelerated integration of distribution and storage

1. Yachuang Electronics: Wholly owned by Ou Chuangxin and Yihai Nengda

• intended toIssue shares + cashAcquired the remaining 40% of Ou Chuangxin and the remaining 45% of Yihai Nengda for a transaction price of 317 million yuan.
• Strategic significance: strengthening theElectronic components distribution + analog chip designcontrol in the field to improve resource integration and operational efficiency.

2. Beijing Ingenics: Storage + NPU dual-line advancement

• storage: LPDDR4 is upgraded from 25nm to 20nm/18nm/16nm, and 4G-32G large-capacity products will be launched next year;Large-capacity NOR Flash is growing faster than DRAM。
• AI: The existing NPU has multi-T computing power and will be launched in the middle of next year.4T computing power IPC products, continue to develop NPU modules with higher computing power.

3. Power and control: SiC ecological expansion, high-end MCU iteration

1. Infineon × ROHM: SiC packaging strategic cooperation

• for each otherSecond supplier of SiC power device packaging, improve customer design and procurement flexibility.
• Technology interoperability: ROHM adopts InfineonTOLT、D-DPAKOther top cooling packages; Infineon adopts RohmDOT-247Half-bridge package, extending the SiC half-bridge solution.
• Application coverage: vehicle chargers, photovoltaics, energy storage, AI data centers.

2. Renesas: RA8T2 series MCU, the benchmark for high-end motor control

• Core configuration:1GHz Cortex-M85 + optional 250MHz Cortex-M33, supports real-time control + communication function integration.
• Performance highlights: Helium technology improves DSP/ML performance;1MB high-speed MRAM+TCM, ensuring real-time motor control; dual Gigabit Ethernet and EtherCAT slave stations to meet industrial/AIoT high-speed interconnection.

4. AI infrastructure: comprehensive upgrade of EUV, image sensing, and passive components

1. ASML: EUV orders surge, AI-driven equipment demand

• 2027 delivery plan:10 sets of High-NA EUV+56 sets of EUV。
• Customer order expansion: Intel increased High-NA EUV from 1 to 2 sets, EUV from 3 to 5 sets; Samsung EUV increased from 5 to 7 sets; SK Hynix plans to install within two years20 sets of EUV, all for HBM and advanced storage.

2. Howe: OV50R image sensor, standard for high-end mobile phones

• Specifications:50 million pixels, 1.2μm, supports four-in-one pixel binning.
• Core advantages:110dB ultra-high dynamic range (HDR), 12.5 million pixels 120fps, 4K 60fps three-channel HDR, 100% QPD focusing, and excellent dark performance.
• Progress: Samples have been produced.Mass production in Q1, 2026。

3. Fenghua Hi-tech: AI server and robot passive components are implemented

• Product: LaunchMedium-high voltage, high-temperature and high-capacity MLCC, alloy resistors, and high-current inductors dedicated to AI servers, cooperate with leading AI server manufacturers.
• Application: Some specifications of products have been used inIntelligent robotfield.

5. Core conclusions and trends

1. NAND super cycle established: AI+QLC+HDD transfer order driver Q4 prices will increase by 5%-10%, and the cycle may be extended to 2026, QLC will become the mainstream of enterprise-level storage.
2. Accelerating industrial chain reconstruction: Distribution mergers and acquisitions strengthen vertical integration, the SiC ecosystem is open and compatible, and MCUs evolve towards high integration and high computing power.
3. AI computing power demand spillover: EUV, image sensors, and passive components are fully upgraded, and fully penetrated from the data center to the terminal.
4. Domestic substitution deepens: Beijing Ingenics, Fenghua Hi-Tech, etc. continue to make breakthroughs in the fields of storage and passive components, adapting to AI and high-end applications.