Answer sheet of chip giant in the first half of the year: The stocking surge drives performance, cars and tariffs are still the focus (2025-07-30)

1. Comparison of the core financial reports of the three giants

1) Texas Instruments (TI): Analog stands out, with high growth in China

• Q2 revenue: Year-on-year growth, analog businessYoY + 18%, operating profit **+27%**
• China area: RevenueYoY + 32%, obviously benefiting from pre-tariff stocking
• downstream structure：
  • Industry:Nearly +20% year-on-year, the strongest support
  • Automobile: only single-digit growth, declining month-on-month
• Inventory: 231 days, month-on-month **-9 days **, demand is picking up
• Q3 Guidance: Neutral to cautious, paying attention to tariffs and the pace of automobile recovery

2) STMicroelectronics (ST): MCU’s cold winter leads to first loss in nearly ten years

• Q2 revenue：Year-on-year - 14.4%
• Gross profit margin: dropped sharply to33.5%
• performance: appearFirst net loss in nearly ten years
• main reason: MCU demand is weak, prices are falling, and inventory is high
• Inventory: 166 days, month-on-month - 1 day, destockingnear bottom
• downstream: Industrial Book-to-Bill >1, Automotive <1
• Q3 Outlook: Revenue month-on-month **+14.6%**, volume increase and price are stable, moderate recovery

3) NXP (NXP): supports high-end automotive specifications and is more resilient

• Car proportion: 59%, mainly ADAS, automotive networks, and high-end MCUs
• Q2 revenue：Year-on-year - 6.4%, automobile businessalmost zero growth
• Gross profit margin: 53.4%, year-on-year - 3.9pct, but still maintained at 50%+
• Inventory: from 169 days to158 days, proactive adjustments are effective
• Q3 Outlook: MoM +8%, auto sales expected to be flat year-on-year, recovery moderate
• Industry: Q2 year-on-year - 11%, Q3 is expected to be + 5% year-on-year, and recovery is weak

2. Common conclusion of the industry: Industrial is strong, automobile is weak, MCU is worse than simulation

1. Analog ≠ MCU same cycle
   • TI simulates strong growth
   • ST and NXP MCU are obviously under pressure, with price war + inventory pressure being greater
2. extreme downstream differentiation
   • Industrial > Automotive: Demand for industrial control, edge AI, and energy infrastructure is more stable
   • automotive resurgenceLagging and mild, not a V-shaped inversion
3. The high growth in the first half of the year came largely from stocking up before tariffs.In particular, the rapid growth of TI in China is not a pure explosion of terminal demand.
4. Uncertainty remains high in the second half of the year
   • Tariff policy
   • The true strength of automobile recovery
   • Inventory removal progress
   • MCU price war continues

3. A common solution for giants: all in 12 inches + cost reduction and efficiency improvement

• TI: Firmly promote the 12-inch strategy and improve analog cost advantages
• NXP: Planning to shift to 12-inch, optimizing the efficiency of car-sized chips
• ST: Layoffs, optimization of fabs, shrinking and reducing burdens

4. Significance to the market and domestic substitution

1. TI price increase + tight delivery time→ Mid- and low-end simulation accelerates domestic substitution
2. ST MCU price war→ Domestic MCU share continues to increase
3. NXP car specification high gross profit→ The window period for entry of domestic automotive-grade chips is expanded
4. Industrial demand remains strong→ Signal chain, power supply, isolation, driver and other categories continue to prosper