[Core News] NAND flash memory prices will rebound and AI-driven passive components will explode

1. NAND flash memory: original factory production reduction + AI demand, price rebound in the second half of the year

• current dilemma: Q1 market in 2025oversupply, prices continued to decline, and manufacturers fell into losses.
• reverse drive：
  • supply side: Samsung, Micron and other leading companiesdrastic production cuts, shrinking production capacity.
  • demand side：AI and the DeepSeek effectDrive storage demand for data centers and end-side equipment; smartphone and PC inventory destocking completed, startReplenish inventory。
• price prediction（TrendForce）：
  • Q2: The decline has stabilized, and the price of consumer-grade SSD (Client SSD) is **+3%~+8%**.
  • second half: Supply and demand have improved significantly, and prices are comprehensiverebound and rise。
• key impact: The inflection point of the storage market cycle has been established,Yangtze River StorageDomestic manufacturers such as Samsung will benefit from industry recovery and technological breakthroughs (such as Samsung adopting its Xtacking patent).

2. European Semiconductors: Infineon received tens of billions of subsidies from the EU to strengthen power semiconductors

• core event: Infineon DresdenSmart Power FabObtained approval from the EU’s Chip Act920 million eurosfunding.
• Project OverviewInfineon：
  • total investment：5 billion euros(own funds + subsidies).
  • Products:ProductionHigh-end power semiconductorsand analog/mixed-signal chips serving the automotive, industrial and energy markets.
  • Progress: Construction will start in March 2023,Start production in 2026, creating 1,000 jobs.
• strategic significance:European AccelerationSemiconductor autonomy, consolidated inPower devices(new energy vehicle core) global leadership position in the field.

3. Analog chips: ADI confirms that the industry has bottomed out and entered a sustained recovery channel

• core judgment:ADI CEO stated that the companyPassed the lowest point of the industry cycle, back on the upward track.
• recovery signal：
  • Inventory health: Channel inventory levelContinuous decline, well below historical standards.
  • Orders pick up:Customer booking volumegradually pick up, demand turned positive.
  • business structure：Industry (50%)withAutomotive electronicsDemand is strongest, leading the recovery.
• market impact: As the leader in analog chips, ADI’s recovery isGlobal semiconductor cycle upswingThis is a clear signal that manufacturers such as TI are recovering simultaneously.

4. Data Center: STMicroelectronics + AWS launch silicon photonics technology to speed up AI interconnection

• technological breakthrough: STMicroelectronics (ST) jointly released with AWSPIC100 Silicon Photonics (SiPh) TechnologySTMicroelectronics。
• Core advantagesSTMicroelectronics：
  • Craftsmanship: Based on300mmLarge wafer manufacturing,Single channel 200Gbps, support800G/1.6Toptical module.
  • Integration: Single chip integrates complex components such as lasers and modulators,High energy efficiency, small size。
  • Supporting:Synchronized launchB55X(55nm silicon germanium) process, efficiency is further improved15%。
• Mass production and application: Volume will be increased in the second half of 2025, directly servingAI cluster, supercomputing data centerHigh-speed interconnection is just needed.

5. Internet of Things: Renesas releases RA4L1 MCU, focusing on ultra-low power consumption and security

• core products: Brand newRA4L1MCU product line (14 models)Renesas。
• Key specificationsRenesas：
  • Kernel：80MHz Arm Cortex-M33, supportTrustZoneSecurity technology.
  • Power consumption：Operating current168µA/MHz, the standby current is only1.7µA(Full SRAM retention).
  • safe: Integrated RenesasRSIP-E11AHardware encryption (AES/ECC/SHA).
  • Integrate: built-inSegment LCD driver, 12-channel capacitive touch.
• target market：Smart water meters, gas meters, smart locks, IoT sensorsand other battery-powered equipment with high safety requirements.

6. Mobile Terminal: Apple’s self-developed 5G baseband C1 is launched with iPhone 16e

• Product landing: Apple’s firstSelf-developed 5G baseband C1mounted oniPhone 16eApple (Mainland China)。
• Process and performance：
  • process:Core4nm, RF transceiver7nm, pursueEnergy efficiency balance。
  • Highlights:Officially calledThe most energy-efficient baseband in iPhone history, helping iPhone 16e video playback last up to26 hoursApple (Mainland China)。
  • Compromise：Does not support millimeter wave (mmWave), only supports Sub-6GHz; peak speed is lower than Qualcomm X75.
• strategic significance: A key step for Apple to get rid of its dependence on Qualcomm, and will gradually expand to more iPhone models in the future.

7. Passive components: AI detonates demand, MLCC / inductor volume and price rise

• Core conclusion(CITIC Construction Investment):AI and new energy vehiclesPositive drive passive component (MLCC, inductor) demandexplosive growth。
• demand data：
  • New energy vehicles: MLCC dosage is6 times that of fuel vehicles。
  • AI server: MLCC demand **+100%, GPU inductor requirementsSurge** (higher power, smaller size).
  • AI PC / mobile phone: MLCC demand respectively **+40%~60%、+20%**。
• market forecast: By 2030,AI fieldMLCC and chip inductorAverage annual growth rate exceeds 30%, the industry entersBoth volume and price risegolden period.

Summary of core trends this week

1. storage cycle reversal：NAND flash memoryDriven by both production reduction and AI demand,Stop falling in Q2 and increase prices in the second half of the year。
2. Computing infrastructure upgrade：Silicon photonics technology（ST+AWS）、High-end power supply(Infineon) becomes the core infrastructure of the AI data center.
3. Chip autonomous acceleration：Apple C1 baseband、Renesas low-power MCUs、Domestic passive componentsA comprehensive breakthrough.
4. The rise of European industry：EU "Chip Act"heavy investment, consolidated inPower/Analog Chipsleading advantage.