Financial Report Outlook 2025 Core Cycle: Car core manufacturers have strong resilience and the challenge of destocking continues

1. Panoramic view of financial reports of major manufacturers: performance generally declined, and car specifications were obviously more resistant to decline

1. Analog chip

• TI
  • Q4 revenue was US$4.007 billion, -2% year-on-year (the decline narrowed significantly)
  • Full year US$15.641 billion, -12%; operating profit -25%
  • Sources of pressure: excess supply, falling prices,Decline in profitability
• ADI
  • Outstanding performance and resilience,Inventory days continue to decline
  • High-end analog + LT / Maxim product line support, market performance significantly better than peers

2. MCU & General Logic

• ST
  • Q4 revenue was US$3.321 billion, -22% year-on-year (a decline of more than 20% for the third consecutive quarter)
  • Full year $13.27 billion, -23.2%
  • Order-to-bill ratio<1, slow industrial recovery, slowing automobile growth, and high inventory suppression
• Microchip
  • Revenue in Q3 of fiscal year 2025 (2024Q4) is only US$1.026 billion,Year-on-year -42%
  • Net loss in single quarter was US$53.6 million, and revenue is expected to continue to shrink this quarter
• Renesas
  • Q4 revenue was 292.6 billion yen, -19.2%; operating profit -34.7%
  • The pressure will increase significantly in the second half of the year and has startedLayoffs, freeze on salary increases

3. Automotive / power semiconductors (most resilient)

• Infineon
  • Revenue in Q1 of fiscal year 2025 was 3.424 billion euros, -8% year-on-year
  • The decline has been moderate for many consecutive quarters.Automotive + SiC power devices have strong support
  • 2025 outlook revised upward: from slight decrease toStay the same or slightly increase
• NXP
  • Full-year revenue of $13.276 billion, only -5%
  • The declines in profits and gross profit margins were relatively small.The stability of the vehicle regulation business is outstanding
• ON Semiconductor
  • Q4 revenue $1.72 billion, -15%; full year -14.2%
  • Operating profit -30.4%, SiC transformation coupled with high inventory, greater pressure

2. Common pressure: Inventory days are soaring, and destocking is still the core task in 2025

• TI: The number of days in inventory (DIO) has continued to rise since 2023, superimposed on the 12-inch aggressive production expansion, and the short-term pressure is huge
• Microchip: Inventory days up to266 days, the supply and demand relationship is completely reversed
• ON Semiconductor: Inventory days exceed 200 days, SiC transformation transition inventory is difficult to digest
• ST / Infineon / NXP: Inventories are on an upward trend, and the focus in 2025 will be on destocking
• ADI: Inventory days in 2024Declining quarter by quarter, leading the industry in adjustment capabilities

3. Major manufacturers’ response: cutting production capacity, closing factories, cutting expenses, switching to vehicle specifications / SiC

• ST
  • Temporarily shut down many wafer fabs
  • French 12-inch new factory project stalled
  • Production capacity is concentrated in Agrate and Crolles 12 inches; SiC is placed in Italy 8 inches
  • Target: before 2027Annual cost savings of 300 to 360 million euros
• Microchip
  • Tempe Fab2 plant closed
  • Withdraw from U.S. Chip Act subsidies and production expansion plans
  • Comprehensive contraction, priority to repair profits
• ON Semiconductor
  • Accelerate the shift of production lines to SiC while digesting historical transition inventory
• Renesas
  • Channel inventories have peaked and fallen, showing positive signals

4. Core judgment of 2025 chip cycle

1. Structural differentiation remains the main line
   • Toughness:Infineon, NXP and other automotive original manufacturers + ADI High End Analog
   • High pressure:General MCU, consumer analog, industry standard chips(TI/ST/Microchip, etc.)
2. Destocking throughout the year

   Capacity contraction, factory closures, cost reductions, and postponement of production expansion will become the norm.
3. Two growth engines
   • Automotive Electronics + SiC Power Devices
   • AI drives high-end storage, interfaces, power supplies, and server chips
4. Cycle turning point

   Continued to be under pressure in the first half of the year,It is expected to bottom out and gradually rebound in the second half of the year, 2025 is expected to be the end of this downward cycle.