[Core Information] Renesas/Infineon/NXP are collectively declining, automotive semiconductors are cold, and AI/domestic chains are heating up

1. The three major automakers: revenue and profits all fell, and inventory removal has not stopped.

1. Renesas: Automotive/industrial double decline, full-year revenue fell 8.2%

• Q4 revenue：2926（Year-on-year - 19.2%，Month-on-month - 15.3%）
• Q4 operating profit：754（Year-on-year - 34.7%）
• full year revenue: 1.35 trillion (Year-on-year - 8.2%）
• Full year operating profit：3979（Year-on-year - 20.7%）
• Automotive business (Q4)：1488（Year-on-year - 13.5%，MoM - 19.8%）
• Industrial/IoT (Q4)：1408（Year-on-year - 25%）
• 2025 Q1 Outlook: Revenue 3090±75,Year-on-year - 12.2%±2.1%

2. Infineon: Profit plummeted 31%, fiscal year outlook cautious

• revenue：34.24（Year-on-year - 8%，MoM - 13%）
• profit：5.73（Year-on-year/month-on-month - 31%), profit margin 16.7%
• Q2 Outlook: Revenue of 3.6 billion, profit margin about 15%
• FY2025: RevenueFlat / slightly increased, with a profit margin of about 10% and a planned investment of 2.5 billion

3. NXP: Revenue fell 7%, seeking a soft landing

• Q4 revenue：31.11（Year-on-year - 9%）
• Q4 operating profit：6.75（Year-on-year - 26%）
• full year revenue：126.14（Year-on-year - 5%）
• Full year operating profit：34.17（Year-on-year - 7%）

4. Teradyne acquires Infineon test team

• Acquisition of Infineon Germany80-person AET test equipment team
• Teradyne: StrengthenedPower semiconductor testingroadmap
• Infineon: Received continuous manufacturing support,Improve flexibility, reduce costs and increase efficiency

2. Texas Instruments: 95% of wafers will be produced in-house by 2030, ensuring supply chain security

• 2030 goals：More than 95% of wafers are purchased internallyTexas Instruments，12-inch wafer self-produced > 80%
• manufacturing layout: 15 factories around the world, including 4 new 12-inch factories in Sherman (the first one will be put into operation in May 2025)
• Technology focus：45–130nm mature process, adapted to analog/embedded chipsTexas Instruments
• core logic：Independently control production, reduce costs, resist geo-risks, and ensure stable delivery

3. Terminal market: mobile phone recovery, AI MLCC outbreak

1. Chinese mobile phones: 4 consecutive quarters of growth, led by vivo/Apple/Huawei

• 2024 Q4: 75 million units shipped,YoY + 5%(4 consecutive quarters of positive growth)
• 2024 full year:271.4 million units,Year-on-year + 3.7%
• Share (Q4): vivo 17.6% > Apple 17.3% > Huawei 16.9% > Xiaomi 16.4% > OPPO / Honor 14.0%
• 2025 Outlook: National consumption subsidies are implemented,Faster growth in the first half of the year

2. Murata: AI server MLCC demand doubles in one year

• Dosage comparison: AI server MLCC is a traditional server8 times
• Growth expectations：Demand for AI server-related MLCCs will more than double in the next year
• drive: The single-machine usage of high-end AI servers such as GB300 is about30,000 pieces, single cabinet440,000 pieces
• Pattern:Obi MurataAI server MLCC 70% share, high-end production capacity is fully loaded and delivery time is extended

4. Industry Summary: Car regulations are cold, AI is hot, and manufacturing independence is accelerating

1. Three main lines

• Automotive semiconductor cycle bottom: Renesas/Infineon/NXP collectively declined,Destocking will continue until at least mid-2025
• AI computing power chain is booming：AI server MLCC, advanced process, data center power supplydemand burst
• Supply chain autonomy: TI firm95% self-produced, industry accelerationVertical integration, production capacity control, and dependence reduction

2. Hot and cold differentiation

• cold：Automotive MCU/Analog, Industrial Chip(The demand is weak and the warehouse is long)
• hot：AI server (MLCC/computing power), domestic replacement, high-end car specifications
• stable：Mature process simulation/embedded(TI Strategy)