[Core Information] Demand for the two major memory devices is expected to slow down, and major manufacturers adjust production capacity and financial forecasts
1. The memory market has weakened: the Korean duo lowered their profit expectations
Affected by the continued sluggish demand for terminals such as smartphones and PCs, the global memory industry has declined, and leading manufacturers have revised their performance outlook downwards.
- Samsung: 2024 Q4 operating profit forecast lowered to8.58 trillion won, a decrease of more than 1 trillion won from previous expectations, with the decline in core DRAM business profitability being the main drag.
- SK hynix: Q4 operating profit forecast lowered to7,774.2 billion won, a month-on-month increase of 10.59%, but a decrease of 4.16% from the original expectation, and the market sentiment was lower than expected.
- Micron: The Q1 financial performance of fiscal year 2025 is acceptable, but the Q2 outlook is significantly lower than market expectations. It is expected that the average price of traditional DRAM and NAND in Q1 of 2025 will further decline.
2. Micron takes the initiative to reduce production: NAND flash memory production capacity is reduced by 10%
In order to cope with the slowdown in demand and maintain a balance between supply and demand, Micron took the lead in implementing supply discipline control.
- Announced NAND flash wafer launch rate10% reduction, while slowing down the pace of process node migration.
- Q1 NAND business revenue was US$2.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 82% but a month-on-month decrease of 5%. Both bit shipments and unit prices fell by low single digits.
- Q2 NAND bit shipments are expected to beSignificant month-on-month decrease, insufficient capacity load will drag down quarterly gross profit margin.
3. TI received US$1.6 billion in subsidies: accelerating the expansion of 12-inch wafer fabs
Texas Instruments received a large subsidy from the US Chip Act to strengthen the local production capacity layout of analog chips.
- obtain$1.6 billionDirect funding + 25% investment tax credit to support the construction of three 12-inch wafer fabs (SM1, SM2, LFAB2) in Texas and Utah.
- The funds will be used for clean room construction, production line installation, and factory structure construction; SM1 is expected to be put into production in mid-2025, and LFAB2 is expected to be put into production at the end of 2026.
- The new plant will be powered by 100% renewable energy, have a target water recovery rate of 70%, and meet LEED Gold environmental standards.
4. Institutional optimistic forecast: IC sales will increase by 26% in 2025
TechInsights released a report, optimistic about the full recovery of the semiconductor market next year.
- Global IC sales forecast in 2025growth 26%, sales volume increased by 17%, driving silicon wafer demand to increase simultaneously by 17%.
- Semiconductor capital expenditures are expected to increase by 14%, and the equipment market will increase19.6%, China’s demand is the core driving force.
- The demand for advanced technologies such as hybrid bonding and High-NA lithography continues to rise, supporting industrial upgrading.
5. South Korea plans to invest 20 trillion won to build Han Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. to compete with TSMC
In order to resolve the imbalance in the industrial structure and strengthen global competitiveness, South Korea has launched a major support plan.
- planned investment20 trillion won (approximately US$13.9 billion), forming the government-funded foundry Korea Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (KSMC).
- Cover advanced + mature processes, build a balanced ecology between foundries and fabless companies, and fill the production capacity gap other than Samsung and SK Hynix.
- The goal is to solve pain points such as technology gaps, insufficient investment, and brain drain, and is expected to create 300 trillion won in economic benefits by 2045.
Industry short review
The memory industry is currently entering a period of short-term adjustment. Weakness in consumer electronics has forced major manufacturers to reduce production and stabilize prices. However, demand resilience in fields such as AI, industry, and automobiles remains. Coupled with increased global semiconductor subsidy policies and the expansion of the foundry ecosystem, the long-term growth logic remains unchanged.The industry is showing a structural differentiation trend of short-term destocking and long-term expansion.
$1.3/ 个
BOM
+86 4000004090
Online WhatsApp