The Nobel Prize favors the field of AI, and the peak season welcomes solid opportunities for IC
1. The Nobel Prize focuses on AI, and its technological influence has received top recognition
The 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics and Chemistry will both be awarded to AI-related fields, marking the jump of AI technology from applied innovation to basic science-level breakthroughs.
Physics Prize: Awarded to John J. Hopfield and Geoffrey E. Hinton in recognition of their fundamental contributions to machine learning based on artificial neural networks, which laid the core algorithm foundation for generative AI.
Chemistry Prize: Awarded to David Baker, Demis Hassabis and John M. Jumper.Among them, Hassabis and Jiang Po are from Google DeepMind. The AlphaFold AI model developed by them overcomes the problem of protein structure prediction and promotes innovation in biomedicine and other fields.
This Nobel Prize is far away from traditional basic theories and focuses on breakthroughs in AI applications, confirming that AI has become the core force driving the transformation of the technology industry and will become the driving force behind the growth of the IC industry in 2024.The only core engine。
2. Global semiconductors continue to grow at a high rate, and AI has become the absolute main force in growth.
According to the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), global semiconductor sales in August 2024 reached$53.1 billion, +20.6% year-on-year, +3.5% month-on-month, with positive year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months, and AI computing power demand is the core driving force.
- Significant differentiation among enterprises: The performance of AI-related companies such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Marvell far exceeds that of general IC manufacturers; in the Taiwan industrial chain, the intensity of AI server sales has surpassed consumer electronics such as iPhones and Macs, becoming the core of growth.
- Q4 peak season anchor AI: Nvidia's Blackwell chips are expected to ship approximately 450,000 pieces in Q4, directly contributing US$10 billion in revenue; the unit price of servers equipped with this chip has increased significantly, driving ODM companies' revenue growth.
- Industry tone: In the 2024 semiconductor peak season, AI will dominate demand, and the market for components such as memory and MLCC will diverge, showing a pattern of strong AI and weak consumption.
3. Memory: AI hard core supports HBM, consumer products continue to be under pressure
The memory market is obviously polarized, with demand for AI and consumer electronics at both ends.
- AI side (HBM): HBM is strictly needed for AI GPUs. It has complex manufacturing processes, low yield rates, and high production capacity usage. It is the core of competition among original storage manufacturers.Affected by capacity squeeze,DRAM price support is stronger than NAND, only HBM maintained a sharp price increase trend.
- Consumer side (DRAM/NAND): Demand for PCs and mobile phones is weak. Global PC shipments in Q3 turned negative year-on-year. Sales of the iPhone 16 series were lower than expected.At the end of September, Kingston cut prices to clear inventory. The inventory of module factories in Taiwan, China, was as high as 11 months. Prices of mid- to low-end products continued to be under pressure.
- Industry Forecast: TrendForce predicts that Q4 DRAM price growth will slow down, and ordinary products may be flat and then fall. Only HBM will maintain high prosperity due to AI demand.
4. MLCC: Server support Q4, client-side AI will explode next year
The demand for MLCC is strong on the cloud side and weak on the device side, and it is expected to usher in a full recovery in 2025.
- Q4 2024: AI servers (shipped by NVIDIA Blackwell) are the core increase; PC and mobile phone replacement demand are weak, ODM notebook orders fell 5%-8% month-on-month, and Q4 MLCC shipments are expected to be 1.205 trillion units, -3.6% month-on-month.
- Outlook 2025: AI empowerment extends to terminals such as PCs and mobile phones, and demand for MLCC increases in both quantity and quality; major manufacturers such as Murata, Yageo, and Huaxin are optimistic about long-term opportunities, and capacity utilization will continue to increase.
5. Conclusion: AI drives long-term prosperity, and domestic substitution welcomes strategic opportunities
Nobel Prize endorsement and double verification of industry data, AI has become a semiconductor industryCore variables for long-term steady growth.In the peak season of 2024, the AI computing power chain (chips, HBM, servers) will maintain high prosperity, and consumer electronics is waiting for recovery; in 2025, device-side AI will take over and drive the entire industry chain to increase volume.
For the domestic semiconductor industry, the AI wave superimposes the acceleration of domestic substitution, providing strategic opportunities for local IC design, manufacturing, packaging and testing and component companies, and there is broad room for long-term growth.
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