Behind The Lack Of Good Memory Prices During Double Eleven: AI Prices Rise Wildly, And The Industry Chain Faces A Major Cost Test

1. Double Eleven is abnormal: not only did the price not drop, but the more you buy, the more expensive it becomes.

• Memory and SSD prices continue to rise, and platform discounts cannot withstand the price increase.
• Consumers, distributors, and brand manufacturers face it togetherCan’t buy it, can’t afford it, can’t calculate the costdilemma
• This is not a short-term promotional fluctuation, but a landmark signal that AI is restructuring the storage industry chain.

2. The market is out of control across the board: from the original factory to the terminal, there is no blind spot for price increases

1. The original factory has strong control over the market, and Q4 contract prices have surged by 30%+

   Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron successively issued price increase letters, showing a tough stance on negotiations;

   Production capacity will be given priority to HBM and high-end server products.Strict quotas at the consumer level, price but no market。
2. Module factories were forced to stop reporting and ordering

   The price of pellets changes day by day, and the cost cannot be calculated. Many module manufacturers have suspended quotations and orders.

   Channel supplies are further in short supply, and panic is spreading.
3. All categories of storage are experiencing general price increases, and no one is spared.
   • DDR5: As the PC platform switches + production capacity is squeezed by AI, the rise suddenly accelerates
   • DDR4: Expected production discontinuation + industrial control/automotive regulations just need support, prices continue to rise
   • NOR Flash: Small-capacity storage of startup codes has also increased in price, and the shortage is comprehensive

3. Deeper reasons: AI demand tsunami, completely tearing apart the traditional cycle

1. AI forms a productivity black hole

   AI servers’ demand for HBM, DRAM, and SSD is increasing exponentially.

   The original manufacturers are fully shifting to high-profit AI-related products, squeezing consumer-grade and niche production capacity.
2. Active supply-side contraction + strategic price control

   After the storage giant experienced a long-term price decline, it took advantage of the AI trendActively reduce production and raise prices，

   Repair profits, reserve funds for AI research and development, and resolutely increase prices in the off-season.
3. Panic stocking up across the chain, amplifying the bullwhip effect

   Mobile phones, PCs, and industrial control factories are stocking up on precautionary measures, and channels are reluctant to sell.

   The demand signal is gradually distorted, further strengthening the logic of original factory price increases.

4. Industry chain cost test: mobile phones are the most painful, and PC/industrial control is under pressure across the board

1. The mobile phone industry has the most direct impact

   LPDDR5X rose over 40% monthly + UFS flash memory surged simultaneously, storage double kill squeezed profits;

   The starting prices of new models such as Redmi, Realme, and OPPO will increase by 200-300 yuan;

   Manufacturers are in a dilemma: increasing prices hurts sales, reducing distribution hurts brands, and both share and profits are under pressure.
2. PC and AI PC cost pressure increases sharply

   The BOM cost of large-memory and high-configuration notebooks and AI PC models has increased significantly.

   Brand manufacturers are forced to adjust pricing, reduce configuration, and optimize inventory.
3. Industrial control/network communication equipment is stuck with DDR4

   Industrial computers, routers, and switches have long relied on DDR4 and cannot quickly switch to DDR5.

   They can only passively accept high prices, and profits continue to be compressed.

5. Trend judgment: The era of high prices will continue until at least the second half of 2026

• Structural supply exceeds demand is a foregone conclusion, and storage no longer fluctuates with PC/mobile phone off-peak seasons.
• The old cycle (consumption-led, peak season price reduction) ends, and the new order (AI-led, original factory control) is established
• Storage continues to be expensive + supply is unstable and will become the norm in the industry

Conclusion