During The Reconstruction Period Of Chip Production Capacity, How To Enhance The Resilience Of The Supply Chain?

1. Three major cases: the ongoing structural changes in the supply chain

1. TSMC exits 6-inch and merges 8-inch → Process generation transition

• TSMC plansExit 6-inch production capacity within two years, continue to integrate 8-inch and shift to 12-inch advanced production capacity
• IDMs such as TI and NXP are simultaneously migrating to 12 inches, and the focus of silicon wafer factories is also tilted towards large sizes.
• impact: A large number of analog and sensors still rely on mature processes above 6 inches / 0.45μm
• downstream dilemma: Needs to be re-striped out for verification, factory transfer, and design changes, and faces the risk of production suspension and price increase.

2. ON Semiconductor, TI, and Infineon shift to high-end products → the supply of general materials shrinks

• ON SemiconductorFab-Lite, overweight SiC, common devices are frequently discontinued and delivery is unstable
• TI, Infineon resources toAutomotive, Industrial, Data Centertilt
• Strategy:Price increases for old materials force the replacement of new products, consumer grade/general purpose supply priority drops
• downstream dilemma: Commonly used materials are often out of stock, and the risk of relying on a single material number is extremely high

3. DDR4 first announced a production stoppage and surged, and then was forced to extend supply → Vulnerability of generation switching

• Samsung and Micron took the lead in announcing DDR4 EOL, spot prices soared and supplies were hard to come by
• DDR4 is still widely used in industry, automobiles, and network communications, and panic hoarding is exacerbating shortages
• Follow-upSamsung extends DDR4 production until end of 2026, temporarily relieve panic
• essential question:Original manufacturers prioritize turning to DDR5/HBM in pursuit of profits, and the supply of mature nodes lacks elasticity.

2. Enhance supply chain resilience: short-medium-long-term three-tier strategy

Short term (risk warning and visibility)

• CreateFull link visualization of the supply chain, tracking the production capacity dynamics of wafer factories and material factories
• buildRisk warning mechanism, monitor signals of production suspension, price increase, and delivery time extension
• Pay attention to the place of origin (wafer/packaging place) to avoid risks of tariffs and geographical supply interruptions
• reasonably establishedsafety stock, to cope with sudden shortages

Mid-term (design optimization and redundancy)

• preferredUniversal, pin-to-pin compatible device, easy to quickly replace
• promoteModular design, a single point out of stock will not affect the whole machine redo
• developSecond/third source of supply, forming a stable substitution pool
• Simultaneously carry out domestic material number verification to diversify the risk of dependence

Long term (technology migration and platformization)

• Make it cleartechnology roadmap: DDR4→DDR5, 6-inch→8/12-inch, old node migration
• SettingsDomestic replacement schedule, proactively introduce rather than passively respond to supply interruptions
• pushPlatform design, reduce material number fragmentation and improve iteration efficiency
• Participate in the upstream ecosystem and jointly define products with foundries and domestic chip factories

3. Conclusion: Supply chain will move towards a new balance